How long will it take for China to catch up with the US and Japan in terms of scientific development after decades?

9 months ago 266
By Han Yangmei, Reporter of China Science NewsIn the global map of scientific and technological development, the United States has been in a leading position for 120 years, and Japan has achieved remarkable results in the past 40 years....

In the global map of scientific and technological development, the United States has been in a leading position for 120 years, and Japan has achieved remarkable results in the past 40 years. By the end of 2023, 20 Japanese scientists have won the Nobel Prize in Natural Sciences. However, from a longer historical perspective, both the United States and Japan are considered latecomers in science. How could they surpass or even surpass the original science countries such as Britain, France, and Germany?

Recently, at the 6th Western History of Science and Scientific Culture Academic Forum, Professor Yuan Jiangyang of the School of Humanities of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences pointed out in his keynote speech that both the United States and Japan have followed a path of "technological catching-up period-scientific take-off period-scientific excellence period" despite their different geographical and cultural areas.

"As latecomers in science, since the reform and opening up, China's technological development has entered the forefront of the global technological 'marathon', and the technological catching-up period has come to an end," said Yuan Jiangyang.

After going through the technological catching-up period, is China's scientific development entering the take-off period? What are the goals that need to be achieved to go from "technological catching-up" to "scientific excellence"? Yuan Jiangyang was interviewed by China Science News on these relevant issues.

Latecomers in Science: Technology First, Then Science

China Science News: What are the differences between the development models of original science countries and latecomers in science?

Yuan Jiangyang: Original science countries such as Britain, France, Germany, and Italy are the birthplaces of modern science. Since the 17th century, their development process has been the rise of modern science followed by the development of modern technology.

Take Britain as an example. The flourishing of its science can be marked by two significant milestones: the publication of Newton's "Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy" in 1687 and the introduction of the first generation steam engine into production in 1774.

On the other hand, latecomers in science give priority to the development of technology and industry. After catching up in technology and industrialization, they have the ability and conditions to pursue scientific excellence and become world scientific and technological powers.

The United States and Japan, as contemporary technological powers, are also considered latecomers in science. In historical terms, their modern scientific systems were introduced externally rather than developed domestically.

China Science News: Please talk specifically about the development of science and technology in the United States.

Yuan Jiangyang: The United States was once a colony of the British Empire. After gaining independence, it began to seek technological development. Since President Jefferson's time, the strategy pursued has been the simultaneous development of technology and science.

I have studied the statistical data of major countries in the world in terms of science, medicine, and technology development from 988 to 1988, especially from 1600 to 1988. The results show that during the entire 19th century, the United States had far fewer major achievements in science and medicine compared to Britain, Germany, and France. However, it achieved brilliant success in technology, which was on par with the leading technological power at that time, Britain, and even surpassed Britain in the 60 years after the 19th century.

In terms of science, the United States experienced rapid development starting from the 20th century. In the first quarter of the 20th century, it achieved scientific take-off and has been leading the world ever since.

China Science News: What is the development path of science and technology in Japan?

Yuan Jiangyang: Japan has also followed a path of technology-first development followed by science. From an overall perspective, Japan can be divided into two development periods: pre-World War II and post-World War II.

After the Meiji Restoration, Japan achieved the goal of enriching the country and strengthening the military and developing industry by introducing Western science and technology and educational systems. After 1945, Japan quickly restarted the process of technological and national reconstruction. From 1950 to 1980, Japan carried out large-scale technology introduction and established a complete "import-based innovation" mechanism.

More than 40 years later, in the late 1980s, Japan entered the top tier of the world's technological "marathon".

Statistics show that from the 1980s to 2002, Japan won 16 of the world's six prestigious science awards (Nobel Prize, Lasker Award, Geddes Award, Wolf Prize, Fields Medal, Turing Award), ranking fifth in the world behind the United States, Britain, France, and Germany. From 1991 to 2002, Japanese scholarly papers ranked second in citation among the top 20 major scientific and technological fields, second only to the United States.

When the Japanese government proposed the goal of winning 30 Nobel Prizes in the next "50 years" in 2001, it shocked and made the world skeptical. However, no one doubts Japan's ability to achieve this goal now.

Has China entered the take-off period in science?

China Science News: How long did it take for the United States and Japan to transition from the technological catching-up period to the scientific take-off period?

Yuan Jiangyang: The United States entered the top tier of technological development in the world in 1900. In the first 25 years of the 20th century, American science took off. Japan entered the top tier of global technological development in the mid-1980s, and since the 21st century, it has made rapid progress in science, now competing with old European scientific powers such as Britain, France, and Germany. In other words, China has entered the take-off period in science.