Daily Golden Melody: Shan Zhichuanxing & Chen Yiliu - "Immaculate"
► National Bureau of Statistics: In 2023, the national gross domestic product was 12.606 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Looking at each quarter, the first quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year, the second quarter increased by 6.3%, the third quarter increased by 4.9%, and the fourth quarter increased by 5.2%. The per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 39,218 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.3% year-on-year. The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.6% year-on-year; the total retail sales of consumer goods was 47.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 50.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The total number of births in the year was 9.02 million, with a birth rate of 6.39‰; the total number of deaths was 11.10 million, with a death rate of 7.87‰; the natural population growth rate was -1.48‰.
► China Economic Times: Currently, there has been a significant change in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market in China, and the overall shortage of commercial housing has basically ended. The gradual relaxation of the purchase restrictions in first-tier cities is the general trend. As China's long-term mechanism of "housing is for living, not for speculation" is gradually established, administrative measures such as purchase restrictions and real estate regulation will eventually be replaced by stable and institutionalized long-term mechanisms.
► China Finance Network: After 4 leading Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETFs broke through 18 billion yuan in transactions on January 16, 2024, the transaction volume continued to increase on January 17. Huatai Bairui Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, Yifangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, Huaxia Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF, and Jiashi Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF collectively reached a transaction volume of nearly 17.6 billion yuan.
Macro Economy
1. China Railway Group Shanghai Bureau: The 40-day Spring Festival travel period is expected to send 89 million passengers, with an average of 2.225 million passengers per day, an increase of 18.7% compared to the same period in 2019, reaching a new high. On the basis of using the peak operation schedule, the Yangtze River Delta railway department plans to increase the number of passenger trains by 369.5 pairs to cope with the large passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season.
2. National Bureau of Statistics: Among the urban population aged 16-24, more than 60% are students. The main task of students is to study, not to work part-time. Most young people have just graduated at the age of 24 and are still in the process of choosing a career. By the age of 29, the majority of them have passed the period of choosing a career. Therefore, we have added the calculation and release of the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25-29 to more fully reflect the employment and unemployment situation of young people from graduating from school to stable employment.
3. Ministry of Public Security: In 2023, the public security organs nationwide smashed more than 1,900 criminal gangs involved in organized crime, arrested 27,000 criminal suspects, and solved more than 29,000 criminal cases of various types. There were 37 key cases of organized crime that were listed for supervision. The arrest of fugitives involved in organized crime and serious crimes, 1,222 target fugitives were arrested, including 1,105 in China and 117 overseas.
4. Henan Provincial Department of Finance: Successfully issued two batches of government refinancing special bonds totaling 24.682 billion yuan, with a term of 7 years and a coupon rate of 2.62%. They were used to repay part of the principal of local government bonds for shantytown renovation and land reserve. It is currently widely expected that the scale of local government bond issuance in 2024 will be around 9 trillion yuan.
5. Beijing Daily: In the past week, the positive rate of influenza virus in sentinel hospitals in Beijing for influenza-like cases was 49.9%, a decrease of nearly 10 percentage points from the peak of 59.5% in early December 2023. In the early stage of this season, influenza A virus was the main type, and in the past week, influenza B virus accounted for 88.5%. At present, the influenza epidemic is still at a relatively high level and is showing a gradually declining trend.
Real Estate Update
1. National Bureau of Statistics: In December 2023, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 62 cities saw a month-on-month decrease in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing. In first-tier cities, the month-on-month decreases in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing were 0.4% and 1.1% respectively. In second-tier cities, the month-on-month decreases in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing were 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, both widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month.
2. China Securities Network: The real estate transaction volume in Harbin has recently shown an upward trend. In the past, the monthly housing transaction volume in the city was about 2,000 units, but now it has increased to about 3,000 units. Currently, the stock of second-hand houses and new houses in Harbin is about 100,000 units each. Compared with the stock, the monthly transaction volume of 3,000 units is not high. The prosperity of winter ice and snow tourism in Harbin has enhanced the city's reputation.
3. National Bureau of Statistics: In 2023, the national real estate development investment was 11.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%; the newly started area of houses was 95.376 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The sales area of commercial housing was 111.735 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%; the sales revenue of commercial housing was 11.622 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%. At the end of 2023, the unsold area of commercial housing was 67.295 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.0%.
4. China Securities Journal: Recently, several first-tier cities have completed the first round of land auction in 2024. There is a relatively obvious differentiation between different land parcels, with some