【Finance Morning Briefing】Monday, 22nd January 2024

Daily Gold Song: Jiang Dawei - "In the Place Where Peach Blossoms Bloom"

► Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association: Since 2021, the Chinese car export market has shown strong growth over the past three years. The export market sales in 2021 reached 2.19 million units, a year-on-year increase of 102%. In 2022, the sales of the car export market will reach 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55%. In 2023, China's car export will reach 5.22 million units, with a continuous strong growth rate of 56%.

► Zhou Hongyi, CEO of 360:AI must find its own application scenarios, instead of focusing on building large models like OpenAI. We should consider upgrading and changing existing applications using large models. We should be sharp and go deep into small scenarios, focusing on vertical development. Instead of upgrading the architecture and technology integration of OpenAI, which would be a wrong direction that will inevitably be eliminated with the technological upgrades of OpenAI. AI is hot, but don't be anxious. There may be some killer applications in 2024, but there may not be any major applications. We need to have a long-term vision.

► CCTV News: It is reported that due to frequent attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, the shipping capacity index of the Red Sea shipping decreased by 57% compared to the annual average level in December last year, exceeding the impact of the initial stage of the global supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. This is the second largest decline on record. March 2021 was the most severe, with a decline of 87%. At that time, the cargo ship Ever Given ran aground in the new Suez Canal for six days, causing the most serious congestion in the canal in a century.

 Macro Economy 

1. China Meteorological Administration: A yellow warning for cold wave has been issued. From 08:00 on January 21 to 20:00 on January 23, Inner Mongolia, eastern Northeast China, northeastern Northwest China, western and northern North China, eastern Huang-Huai, Jiang-Huai, most areas of Jiangnan, southeastern Southwest China, and most areas of South China will experience a temperature drop of 8-10℃. The temperature drop in some areas of eastern Jilin, eastern Liaoning, central and northern Shanxi, central and southern Zhejiang, and northern Fujian may reach 12-16℃.

2. CCTV News App: Beijing will deepen educational reform and development in 2024. An additional 20,000 primary and secondary school places will be created. Efforts will be made to continue the "dual reduction" work, make good use of artificial intelligence and big data technology, improve the "online classroom" digital curriculum system for all stages and subjects, and enhance the teaching ability of schools. The development of high-quality and diverse regular high schools will be promoted, and the layout of vocational education will be optimized and adjusted.

3. Beijing Evening News: The 40-day Spring Festival travel season will begin on January 26th (the 16th day of the twelfth lunar month). It is estimated that the total passenger volume to and from Beijing during the Spring Festival travel season will reach 49.88 million, with an average of nearly 1.25 million per day, a year-on-year increase of 55%. The peak will occur on February 17th (the eighth day of the first lunar month), with 1.57 million people entering and leaving Beijing.

4. Klaus Schwab, Chairman of the World Economic Forum:China still has room for development and economic growth. In the past, some people have said that China's vigorous development has come to an end, and similar statements are being made now. I believe that China will take action to address challenges such as an aging society, debt, and the real estate market, and will find new economic growth models.

5. PwC: Over 4,700 CEOs from around the world were surveyed on global economic issues. 38% of the respondents were optimistic about global economic growth. This number is double that of last year when many countries were facing challenges such as high inflation and rising interest rates. The number of executives expecting economic decline this year decreased from a record high of 73% last year to 45%. Few CEOs believe that their companies face a high risk of geopolitical conflicts.

 Real Estate News 

1. China Business News: Despite the intensified support policies for housing, overall data has not shown significant improvement, and some indicators may continue to decline. The core issue of the continued downturn in the real estate market may not only be due to a slowdown in demand, but also more likely due to the supply side, namely real estate developers. Therefore, in the next step, we need to continue to stimulate demand and also address the issues of real estate developers.

2. Beijing Municipality: Beijing will deepen urban renewal action in 2024. The construction of 300 comprehensive renovation projects and the completion of 200 projects in old residential communities will be initiated. The construction of 1,000 elevators and the completion of 600 elevators in old buildings will be started. The withdrawal of leaseable buildings in the core area will be promoted, with 2,000 households applying for lease withdrawal completed. The conversion of dilapidated buildings will be initiated, covering an area of 200,000 square meters, and the renovation and upgrading of old industrial buildings will be carried out in 40 projects.

3. Securities Times:Eight properties in Shenzhen's famous luxury residential project Peninsula City State are to be auctioned on January 25th and February 2nd, 2024. All eight properties are related to economic dispute cases of Shenzhen Peninsula City State. The sizes of these properties range from 89.6 square meters to 140.82 square meters, and the starting prices of the auction range from 9.65 million to 18.19 million yuan, all of which are lower than the current market prices.

 Stock Market Review 

1. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.47% to close at 2832.28 points, with a weekly decline of 1.72%; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.68% to close at 8787.02 points, with a weekly decline of 2.33%; the ChiNext Index fell by 0.98% to close at 1715.44 points, with a weekly decline of 2.6%.

2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.54% to close at 15308.